Have you ever noticed that 80% of the posts on poker forums follow the exact same 3-step formula?

A lot of players call this behavior “studying.” But how many of these discussions actually get anywhere? Most of the time, they turn into biased debates that end with no clear conclusion. 

It’s so common that we don’t even think it’s weird when two players give us the exact opposite advice on how to play a hand. One player will say something like:

“Well, I feel like he can’t rep much value here, because what value could he have that makes sense in this line? I think you have to call.”

And then another player responds,

“I think it’s a fold because I think most opponents would perceive you to be really strong here. When he raises you in this line, it’s probably underbluffed.”

Do you see the problem here? These players don’t have any evidence for what they are saying. They are simply speculating based on their feelings about the hand and providing anecdotes, not data.

So even if a consensus is reached, how do we know that we can trust it? And how likely is it that we can actually apply what we’ve learned to the next situation when the details of the hand have changed?

Believe it or not, it isn’t just the low-level forums that fall into these patterns. Even private study groups among high-stakes players frequently devolve into this type of subjective, biased analysis.

Either they can’t come to a conclusion on anything, or even worse, there is a clear, no-gray-area conclusion for every hand that is discussed. Now, that second scenario might seem more appealing, but it’s actually very dangerous. Allow me to explain… 

Have you ever been in a study group where one person has the final say on everything? Remember how frustrating it was to be forced onto the next hand without feeling like you really understood the solution? 

Think about how unproductive this becomes if the group leader is not held accountable. Why is he not required to produce any evidence for what he says? And why has everyone else in the group decided to put so much trust in his intuition?

And even if he’s correct, what value has he actually offered you? How are you supposed to arrive at better decisions under pressure if you were never shown how to get there? It’s like you’re being asked to imitate somebody else’s thoughts without a clear explanation of how they came up with them! 

Think back to the last session you played where you faced a really difficult bet on the river. How did you feel when you made that decision to call or fold? How confident were you after the hand that you had made the right play?

Many players feel almost “frozen” in high-pressure bluff catching situations. They have so much information flying at them all at once that they can’t prioritize anything, so they enter a state of “analysis paralysis.”

Other players have the opposite reaction. They instinctively avoid the uncertainty by completely rushing their decision, and the hand is over before they realize what hit them.

The two reactions are different, but the result is the same:

Then, after the session, we replay the hand over and over and try to come to a conclusion about it. But there is simply too much missing information—too many details that we haven’t been able to quantify.

The bet sizing… the positions… the player profiles… every data point has it’s own spectrum of potential implications, each having a dramatic impact on the equity of your hand. 

It’s no wonder we run to forums or Skype groups to get other peoples’ opinions. If anything, just to get out of our own heads! But most of those players are no better off than you are. Everyone is battling against uncertainty.

As both a mindset coach and a technical coach, I can tell you that there is nothing worse for your game than letting this uncertainty take hold of you. It will begin to distort every one of your decisions and send your career into a downward performance spiral. 

This mental game instability, especially when combined with a bad run of variance, can cause crippling downswings that are incredibly difficult for a player to find his way out of. Self-doubt is a vicious cycle that can be the end to an otherwise successful career.

But it’s not just the complexity that makes bluff catching so difficult. There is a powerful psychological force at work which is what causes bluff catching to be such a sensitive part of the game.